A counting game...

This is hot off the Associated Press. Please remember that the Associated Press is an organization of journalists, who are so-named because they practice something called "journalism."

Stocks jump on report of Geithner nomination - Yahoo! News

NEW YORK – Wall Street is ending a volatile week with an unexpected jolt of confidence following reports that President-elect Barack Obama plans to name New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner as Treasury secretary. The major indexes have jumped more than 5 percent, with the Dow Jones industrials surging nearly 500 points.

Stocks have erased about half of the losses that came in steep selling Wednesday and Thursday.

Wall Street appears buoyed by reports that Obama plans to name his economic team on Monday — offering investors some hope of a smooth transition in an uncertain market.

The Dow is ending up 494, or 6.5 percent, at the 8,047 level.

Now, go back and count a) the number of facts, and b) the number of entirely unsubstantiated conjectures. Which is greater? Which of the two, facts or conjectures, are likely to be seen as the "point" or "theme" of the story?

George Friedman On G-20 and GM

George Friedman of Stratfor is a relentless geopolitcal realist. He gives too much weight to State power, but he's very smart and extremely plugged in. Whenever I want to know what's really going on in the world, who the players are, and what the calculus is, I see what he has to say.

Where were you in 1997?

The S&P 500 last traded at today's prices in April, 1997...and that's NOT adjusted for inflation.

Mikey G. on Deflation

Mike: what's the deal here? Not to sound like a punk, but I feel like a modest deflationary trend in the real cost of goods is a pretty good thing for people like, well, Becky and I, who carry almost no debt, have highly marketable skills, a relatively robust amount of liquidity, and a very broad time horizon in terms of investment.

Tell me where deflation is going to hit me hardest. 

Also, I'm working up a post in response to your comments yesterday. 

And you should get ScribeFire, if you haven't already. I just hit F8, type up some stuff, and, as Madden would say, BOOM.

A followup...

...to yesterday's bit about having it both ways on oil prices. Look at this hyperbolic release from the AFP:

LONDON (AFP) – Oil prices sank under 50 dollars a barrel in London on Thursday, reaching the lowest levels for three and a half years, as the market was plagued by weak energy demand.

Oh those halcyon days of $150/barrel oil! Oh, how we dreamed that it might reach $200! But then, even as we were tempted by the gods, this plague of cheap-as-hell energy befell us!

Some really good stuff in the roundup this morning.

Jacob Sullum on the unbelievable case of forgetsies the press seems to suffer from. The daily headlines that manage to combine falling oil prices with economic ruin ("Oil falls to 22-month low as fears of recession sharpen") would be merely puzzling if the press hadn't hooted and hollered mere months ago over the prospects of $200 barrels of oil. It begs the question, which can only be asked with incredulity by anyone with the ability to recall events and facts that occurred more than 30 days prior in time: "Where the hell have you been?"

I see gas under $2.00 in Winston and think to myself, "Wow--this is great. The amount I'll save from all our Christmas driving alone will pretty much pay for gifts this year." That doesn't even begin to address the benefits our battered and imperiled middle class will be reaping when they get this year's energy bill. The question remains: if increasing oil prices are unequivocally bad, which the press has claimed ad nauseum for the better part of a year, then the decline in oil prices has to be good simply by the law of non-contradiction. The less child-like observer--even those with little experience in the field of economics--knows that the press simply doesn't understand things like supply and demand--and therefore doesn't understand that rising oil prices are not simply a natural disaster, like earthquakes.  Rising oil prices are exactly what they are--an increase in the price of a good--and they will be offset by future developments or decreases in demand.

But this childishness is not the exclusive domain of the press, as Louis CK points out here on Conan.

Count your blessings, says Mankiw.

In other news, anyone interested in the future of libertarianism, particularly in the age of corporatism, owes it to themselves to follow the debate at Cato Unbound, initiated by Roderick Long. His piece and the several replies to it are all required reading. I've got my own response to this brewing, but it'll have to wait for some quiet time.

Finally, George Will on the auto bailout. Will seems to be suffering from a bit of Rip Van Winkle syndrome; he writes as if he just woke up from a 20-year slumber and doesn't quite recognize the people around him. Yes, George, this is your party--I'd get moving if I were you.

Shark problem? Add blood!

No other metaphor captures the pure insanity of the bailout like the shark one.  Here's another reason why:

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Genworth Financial Inc., the insurer spun off by General Electric Co., said it’s in negotiations to acquire InterBank Fsb and with it eligibility for the U.S. Treasury’s $750 billion bailout program.

Genworth is seeking to buy the Maple Grove, Minnesota-based thrift in order to gain recognition as a savings-and-loan holding company. Talks are in progress and terms are being negotiated, Genworth spokesman Al Orendorff said today.

Genworth Financial would join the more than 50 regional banks offering stakes to the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program. The bank is seeking to tap bailout funds after a surge in claims at its mortgage insurance unit and investment losses.